Virginia is updating its plan for evacuation because of a hurricane and now expects about twice as many people to evacuate the Hampton Roads area as previously estimated.
The update is based on the preliminary results of a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers study that was begun in 2000. Virginia has updated the evacuation plan periodically but has been awaiting the results of this study to conduct a more thorough overhaul.
"Our current plan has been continually updated with the most recent information available," Michael Cline, state coordinator for the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, said in a statement. "The new study gives us a worst-case scenario, and that's exactly what we must plan for."
The study estimates that about 100,000 people could evacuate the Hampton Roads area for a Category 1 hurricane and up to 890,000 for a much more severe, or Category 4, storm.
Those figures are worst-case scenarios and are about twice what the 1992 study estimated, the Department of Emergency Management said. About 10 percent of evacuees would be expected to seek public shelter, the management agency said.
Population growth during the past 15 years and a change in the way potential storm surges are measured contribute to an increased number of expected evacuees. The new study uses high tide instead of mean tide as a key measure, and that adds 2 to 3 feet of potential storm surge per hurricane category.
The current plan calls for an evacuation order 14 to 24 hours before the onset of tropical-storm-force winds, but when Virginia updates the evacuation plan using the new data, the timetable for starting an evacuation could change to compensate for increased traffic.
Officials said changes in the state's plan will be in place before the beginning of Virginia's prime hurricane season, which is from late August through September.
State officials want people who live in storm-surge areas and who will be adversely affected by the amount of storm surge to understand that they don't have to drive great distances to be safe. Instead, they can go to the homes of family or friends in the region that are on higher ground.
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