Farmer's Almanac forecasts a harsher winter, WSLS meteorologist skeptical

The nation’s oldest Farmer’s Almanac’s winter forecast indicates it may soon be time to install a wood stove or drag the skis out of the garage.

Janice Stillman, editor of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, circa 1793, said the forecast for the area that includes Danville is colder with more precipitation than past winters.

Stillman said it’s possible the region will have both snow on Thanksgiving and a white Christmas.

“Through the winter period, November through March, temperatures will be 2 degrees below normal on average,” Stillman said. “Most of November looks pretty mild. There will be cold and snowy periods from December through March.”

“The coldest temperatures will occur in early and mid-December, early and late January, and early and mid-February,” according to the Almanac. “The biggest snowstorm will occur in early January, with snow likely in time for Thanksgiving and frequent snowfall in December and mid-February.”

How does Stillman’s team surmise this forecast?

It comes down to three factors — sunspots, an area’s climate and studying meteorological factors.

There has been a change in sunspot activity, she said. Add to that a gradual cooling of the U.S. and other weather factors and that’s what makes the Old Farmer’s Almanac predict a more harsh winter than normal.

There are plenty of skeptics however.

WSLS Storm Team 10 meteorologist Jeff Haniewich doesn’t put a lot of weight in the assortment of weather forecasting almanacs.

Haniewich said he did an experiment where he compared the forecast of an almanac with the National Weather Service before he went to Disney World several years ago.

He said the almanac called for rain every day he planned on being in Florida. The reverse was true for the National Weather Service forecast. They called for a mix of sun and cloudy conditions.

“Not a single drop of rain fell,” Haniewich said. “I don’t put a lot of stock in almanacs.”

He said the notion this winter could be colder and snowier could be true, but that’s because the past few winters haven’t produced much snow.

“It can’t get any drier,” Haniewich said. “It won’t take much to have a worse winter.”

Haniewich’s colleague, Patrick McKee, doesn’t put a lot of faith in almanacs either.

“I never look at the almanac forecast,” McKee said. “As a meteorologist, we look at scientific factors. It looks like the almanac largely looks at climatology.”

McKee said the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for December through February shows below normal precipitation with above normal temperatures.

“Something I’ve noticed from the past is when we have a really hot summer, like we saw in summer 2007, usually two winters later we have a decent snow,” he said. “That would be this winter.”

Stillman said she is comfortable with her publication’s forecast.

“Dress warm for those football games,” Stillman said.