Poll shows big undecided block in Lt. Governor, Attorney General races

Things are looking up for the Republicans' down-ticket candidates, according to the latest poll for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who is seeking re-election, and Ken Cuccinelli, the nominee for attorney general, are heading into Tuesday's election with comfortable leads over their Democratic challengers.

The Times-Dispatch Poll shows Bolling ahead of Jody Wagner, 47 percent to 34 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Bolling's lead is unchanged from an earlier poll for the newspaper.

Cuccinelli is favored over Stephen C. Shannon, 46 percent to 32 percent, with 22 percent undecided. Cuccinelli has doubled his lead from early October.

The findings, paired with the results of separate polls that put Bob McDonnell in front of Democrat R. Creigh Deeds for governor, could portend the first Republican sweep in 12 years.

The Virginia elections are being closely watched as a possible referendum on President Barack Obama, who carried the state last year. He is the first Democrat to win Virginia for the presidency since 1964.

Because they are attracting less attention, the down-ticket contests have become pointed and occasionally personal, punctuated by attack advertisements on television, radio and online.

Regardless, the Republicans are viewed more favorably than their opponents.

Bolling's favorable rating is 38 percent; Wagner's is 23 percent. Cuccinelli has a 35 percent favorable rating; Shannon, 20 percent.

In both races, however, about one-third of respondents could not offer an opinion of the candidates -- a sign they are not widely known even in the final hours of the campaign.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the Times-Dispatch Poll Wednesday and Thursday.

Based on interviews with 625 registered voters likely to cast ballots next week, the results could vary 4 percentage points in either direction.

Even with roughly one in five undecided for lieutenant governor and attorney general, voters in most regions favor Republicans.

GOP candidates also show surprising strength with traditional Democratic constituencies, women and young voters -- an indication that Virginia Democrats, despite a string of victories since 2001, are struggling to energize their base.

Bolling, seeking a second term, has a statistically insignificant edge among women over Wagner, 40 percent to 39 percent.

Wagner is the only woman on the Virginia ballot this year. She is seeking to become the second woman to win statewide office here. Democrat Mary Sue Terry was twice elected attorney general -- in 1985 and 1989.

Bolling leads in all regions, though he and Wagner are neck-and-neck in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.

Except for voters 18 to 34, who heavily prefer Wagner, Bolling is the favorite of all other age groups.

Cuccinelli, an outspoken foe of abortion and homosexual rights, leads Shannon among women, 42 percent to 37 percent.

Cuccinelli is ahead of Shannon in all age groups, though his advantage among voters 18 to 34 is within the margin of error.

Cuccinelli leads in all regions but one, Northern Virginia, where he and Shannon -- both residents of Fairfax County -- are statistically tied.

Bolling, a former state senator from Hanover County, was narrowly elected lieutenant governor in 2005 over Democrat Leslie L. Byrne of Fairfax.

Wagner, a Virginia Beach lawyer-businesswoman, was finance secretary in the Kaine administration.

Cuccinelli is a state senator from southwestern Fairfax County. Shannon represented the county in the House of Delegates.

In early October, The Times-Dispatch Poll put the Bolling-Wagner spread where it is in the latest survey: 13 percentage points.

The earlier poll put Cuccinelli in front by 7 percentage points.