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Tracking the accuracy of the winter forecast

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Whether you're a winter fan or a hater, I'm sure you have one lingering question this year... Will this winter be like last? 

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is saying no.  They're calling for warmer than normal temperatures and near average precipitation, which in the form of snow, usually ranges from 9 inches in Danville to near two feet in Blacksburg.  As you may recall, this is a lot less than what we received last year where snowfall totals ranged from 13 to 53 inches. 

But, before you believe this year's forecast you may be interested in how accurate the National Weather Service has been in the past.  Looking at last year's forecast, they called for cooler than normal temperatures.  As it turned out, the entire area was cooler than normal with an average daytime high through December, January and February for Roanoke being 42 degrees.  However, they missed the precipitation last year.  They were calling for near normal amounts when in reality some folks saw feet of snow, out of just one storm.

Going further back, the National Weather Service forecasted the temperatures accurately through the 2007 and 2008 winters.  The precipitation forecast's accuracy varies from year to year but, overall is usually more accurate than last year's forecast.

So, if you're hoping for a mild winter... You may just be in luck this year.

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