Debt debate will have lasting impact on Virginia politics

The debt debate might be over for now, but the saga will leave a lasting impact on politics in Virginia.

The stock market's sharp decline, coupled with Friday's decision by Standard & Poor's to downgrade the United States' credit rating, make it clear that there were no winners. But with two prominent figures in the fight and a pivotal role as a swing state in 2012, Virginia was at the center of the issue.

We take a look at the deal, its potential impacts on the presidential race in Virginia, the tea party's role and the impact on two of the central players in the debt discussion, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-7th, and Sen. Mark R. Warner, D-Va.

The basics

The bill signed into law last week provides a $2.1 trillion debt-ceiling increase through 2013 in exchange for at least the same in deficit reductions over a decade. The agreement provides nearly $1 trillion in upfront cuts with a bipartisan, bicameral "super committee" tasked with returning in the fall with an additional $1.5 trillion, including entitlement and tax reform.

If the committee's legislation is not enacted, then $1.2 trillion in across-the-board cuts are automatically triggered. If that happens, Virginia could be especially hard hit, as half of the cuts would come from the military.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-7th

After being elected House majority leader in November, Cantor's political profile again rose sharply when he was named to the debt commission led by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in April.

But as that commission crumbled, catalyzed by Cantor walking away from the discussions in June, Cantor's spotlight turned to a target with pundits pointing to the Henrico County congressman as an example of Washington's dysfunction.

"He got the worst of it in terms of PR, far worse than (Speaker of the House John A.) Boehner or (Senate Minority Leader Mitch) McConnell," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

Throughout the debate, Cantor took a hard line on taxes, insisting repeatedly that tax increases not be part of a deal, and suggesting that new revenue from closing tax loopholes be offset by additional cuts. What some Republicans saw as a principled stand, others saw as unwillingness to compromise.

"He was helped and hurt," Sabato said. "He was helped with the Republican base and the core of the GOP House caucus that may one day elect him speaker. He was hurt with the general population because he looked unreasonable and unwilling to compromise."

But Sabato suggested that Cantor is not likely concerned about any harm to his political future, noting his heavily Republican district and the forthcoming changes to it through the redistricting process.

"This new (district) will probably be even more heavily Republican than the one he's got now," he said.

How Cantor fared "depends which part of the public we are talking to," said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University.

"Some see him as a part of the problem in Washington — the 'my way or nothing' approach to issues. Others see a principled leader in a town of on-the-take politicians corrupted by the traditional norms of Washington."

Sen. Mark R. Warner, D-Va.

As co-founder of the "Gang of Six," a bipartisan group of U.S. senators that began work on a sweeping debt-reduction plan several months ago, Warner was working on deficit reduction before it was in vogue.

After some bumps, the group eventually trotted out the outline for a $3.7 trillion package that would have reformed the tax code, increasing revenues while lowering overall income-tax rates, and made cuts across the board, including major changes to entitlements.

As with all efforts toward a so-called "grand bargain" compromise, it went nowhere.

"He came across positively. He always does in discussing the budget, because he knows it well, and he seems reasonable," Sabato said. "On the other hand, he didn't get anything done."

Warner has vowed to continue fighting for a comprehensive approach to debt reduction, and has asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., for a seat on the super committee.

Warner, Virginia's governor from 2002 to 2006, has long entertained presidential ambitions — he made multiple trips to Iowa and New Hampshire before announcing in October 2006 that he would not run in 2008.

He remains popular among Virginians according to polling data and would enjoy a huge boost in his national profile if he joined the committee and produced a plan that could make it through Congress.

On the other hand, if the committee fails, it would be a blow to the freshman senator.

"Warner's role keeps him in the public eye as a bipartisan voice of moderation and compromise," Rozell said. "It plays very well to his already established image.

"I don't think it matters that the Gang of Six did not drive the process, it's more that the public is really cynical right now and disdainful of all the polarization in Washington.

"Warner looks different than the norm these days, and that's good for him and his future aspirations."

2012 in Virginia

Though no one much seemed to care for the debt deal, liberals were particularly incensed, feeling that President Barack Obama gave too much deference to House Republicans, who were in turn beholden to tea-party freshmen.

Independents, too, seem disillusioned by the inability of the two parties to compromise and reach a meaningful, long-term compromise.

Should the super committee fail to produce, that disenchantment will only grow, which could be especially significant in swing states such as Virginia, where Obama won in 2008 with the support of Northern Virginia, the state's most liberal region.

"Obama would lose Virginia today — I don't think there's any doubt," Sabato said, pointing to recent surveys in other swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania that show the president's disapproval rating higher than his approval rating.

Ultimately, the presidential race will be decided on the economy, Sabato said. If Obama manages to shrink the unemployment rate and the super committee comes up with significant debt reductions that don't gut entitlements and convince world financial markets that the U.S. is getting serious about its debt problem, Obama could still win Virginia, he said.

But if the economy continues to sputter, and the committee fails, he said, Obama has serious problems here, and nationwide.

The tea party

Before the deal was even signed, a winner had been declared: the tea-party activists.

No, they didn't get the deep cuts they wanted. And no, many tea-party members of Congress didn't support the deal. But the new crop of conservatives succeeded in changing the way Washington does business.

Yet tea-party activists from Virginia are not satisfied — particularly after the downgrade by Standard & Poor's.

"The establishment promised their debt-ceiling increase would preserve our Aaa credit rating," said Jamie Radtke, a former chairwoman of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots Federation and now a Republican U.S. Senate candidate.

"We tea-party Republicans said a debt-ceiling increase would almost certainly guarantee a downgrade," Radtke said, and "less than five days after the debt ceiling was raised, that downgrade has occurred."

Mark Kevin Lloyd, current chairman of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, said: "Just changing the debate in the midst of this crisis is not much consolation."

"Overall, we think it was an incredible opportunity missed," he said, saying the cuts were entirely insignificant. "Some search for a victory in this, but it's a real stretch to find one. We have great disappointment in those who we elected to hold the line."

Of the chances that the super committee might come up with a more meaningful plan, Lloyd said he's not holding his breath.

"If history is any indicator, then I have very, very little faith that it will be anything more than more Washington smoke and mirrors," he said.