Only one VA prospect left for VP

Okay, we’ve had some pretty big developments on the VP front, so I figured it was time to revisit the topic.

Initially, it appeared that three Virginians were likely to be considered for the position: Sen. Jim Webb, Gov. Tim Kaine, and former Gov. and current Senate candidate Mark Warner. As I have pointed out in past postings, all three men bring a long list of attributes and some baggage to the conversation.

Since then, two of the prospective picks have removed themselves from consideration. First, Mark Warner made it clear to a very large audience (the Virginia State Democratic Convention in June) that he was dedicated entirely to winning Sen. John Warner’s seat. Mark him off the list.

Monday, Sen. Jim Webb crossed his name off as well. Webb put out a statement saying he wants to stay in the Senate. Subsequent blog postings from Marc Ambinder and other online journalists indicate that Webb told the Obama people no after they requested a list of personal and financial documents from the junior senator. It’s the beginning of the vetting process, and it’s one that Webb would likely have not faired very well in. He has been married more than once, has written many books and op-eds, and has a record in the Reagan administration as Secretary of the Navy. He would have a lot of explaining to do on all of those fronts. According to Ambinder, it was more than Webb wanted to go through.

That leaves Virginia with one last option: Gov. Tim Kaine. So, how likely is it that Obama will pick him? I would bet slim. Going in Kaine’s favor: his early and loud support of Obama, his two statewide wins in a state that trends red to purple, his squeaky clean Boy Scout image, his lack of Washington experience/baggage, his executive experience, and his ability to talk openly about matters of faith (for a Democrat that is important and unusual).

But, I’m not sure that is enough to counterbalance the problems a potential Kaine candidacy could present. First, many believe Obama needs a gray beard. Someone who can add some heft to Obama’s weak resume. Kaine has only served two years as Virginia’s governor and four years as our lt. governor. Further, he has no foreign affairs or defense experience. Is all of that enough to qualify him to be our next president? Second, while Kaine has had two statewide wins, it is unclear whether he actually is popular enough to carry Virginia for Obama. Public polling from SurveyUSA generally has his approval rating in the 55% range, which is strong but far behind the rankings Sen. Warner and former Gov. Warner receive. Third, he has no national following and little national name recognition. So, while his selection might create a buzz in Virginia and possibly DC and Maryland, it’s unlikely to cause much of a sensation anywhere else. Fourth, Kaine is having considerable trouble finding success in the General Assembly. He came into office proclaiming his commitment to fix our transportation crisis. He’s tried mightily, but so far has failed. Hope is slim that any real solutions will be hammered out in the General Assembly’s special transportation session that is currently underway. Finally, if Kaine were to be selected and win, it would leave a Republican to take control of the governor’s mansion in advance of the 2009 gubernatorial contest.

On paper, Kaine would appear to have more minuses and plusses. However, it’s Kaine’s personal connection with Obama that may overcome all of that. From all appearances, the men have a strong relationship/friendship. If Obama picks his vice president on the basis of personal comfort, Kaine may have the upper hand.