A Legislature Divided

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - The old saying that it takes two to tango doesn’t apply to the General Assembly.

In that venue, it takes three: the Senate, the House and the governor.

When they’re all controlled by the same party, the dance is smoother. Not flawless - toes still get stepped on - but the give-and-take is relatively painless and productive.

In a legislature divided, the going is tougher and accord more elusive. And that’s what Virginia has this year, when on Wednesday the assembly convenes to meet for a scheduled 60 days to draft a two-year budget and act on thousands of other measures.

A three-way partisan split isn’t new, but this year it’s different. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and his predecessor, fellow Democrat Mark R. Warner, had to contend with a Republican House and Senate.

November’s election tilted the balance. Democrats took over the Senate, leaving the GOP weakened - but hardly powerless. Because without the cooperation of the Republican House, nothing can get done.

The question is: How willing will the conservative House GOP majority be to work with a legacy-seeking governor and the Senate’s new Democratic leadership?

“I think we will see a year of gridlock,“ said Stephen J. Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg. “Two out of three doesn’t give you victory in the legislature, and the House is by all indications in no mood to compromise.“

There is ample precedent for legislative stalemate. The last two even-year budget sessions far exceeded their adjournment targets, stretching into May in 2004 and August in 2006. And that was with the GOP in control in both chambers of the legislature.

A more harmonious session by a split legislature might be too much to expect. Farnsworth said that most conservative House Republicans are in seats made safe by gerrymandering, so they risk little politically by thwarting the Democrats.

Those Republicans are especially eager to avoid a repeat of 2004, when a handful of GOP moderates broke from their leadership and helped pass a $1.4 billion tax increase that was Warner’s signature accomplishment. Warner left office with record-high approval ratings and is now a strong favorite to win a U.S. Senate seat.

“They don’t want to create another Mark Warner,“ Farnsworth said of the House GOP.

Nevertheless, there will be plenty of issues on which the opposing parties can find compromise, University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato predicted.

“It’s true that under our system, nationally and in the states, just one house can potentially stop everything from happening. But I doubt Republicans want to go there,“ Sabato said. “You don’t want to be seen as the fly in the ointment on everything.“

Mental health reforms proposed as a result of the Virginia Tech shootings and elimination or modification of the abusive-driver fees passed last year are among the high-profile issues on which the parties likely will find agreement, Sabato said.

He said the GOP already is “on the ropes” after a series of electoral losses, and becoming known as “the party of no” would not help.

Kaine agreed.

“Obstructionism doesn’t get you anywhere,“ he said.

Kaine predicted partisan rhetoric eventually would take a back seat to doing the people’s business.

“Both parties have a lot at stake to hammer out a budget and compromise,“ he said.