Voter turnout is key in Democratic race

The three Democratic gubernatorial prospects today close out a highly contentious but little-noticed primary battle likely to decided by a sliver of Virginia voters.

A late surge by R. Creigh Deeds again is forcing Terry McAuliffe and Brian J. Moran to attack Deeds over his pro-gun stance, including attempts in 2008 and this year to overturn a veto by departing Gov. Timothy M. Kaine of legislation banning concealed firearms in bars.

Strategists suggest that an unknown heading into the first Democratic primary for governor in 32 years is the impact of get-out-the-vote apparatuses assembled by the candidates largely out of view.

Balloting in the primary—open to all voters, regardless of their party preference—begins at 6 a.m. and continues until 7 p.m.

The cost of the election to taxpayers could not be determined immediately, though Virginia localities spent nearly $3.2 million in the 2008 presidential primary.

In addition to selecting an opponent to Republican gubernatorial nominee Bob McDonnell, a former attorney general, voters will pick a Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor and settle House of Delegates nominations in 12 district primaries.

Jody Wagner, a former secretary of finance in the Kaine administration, and former gubernatorial aide Mike Signer are vying to take on Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, a Republican seeking a second term.

Locally, primaries are being held for House seats open because of the retirements of Democrat Franklin P. Hall of Richmond and Republican Frank D. Hargrove Sr. of Hanover.

Virginia has about 5 million registered voters, but turnout is expected to be below 5 percent. Relatively few absentee ballots have been cast so far—about 10,000 of nearly 15,000 applications, according to the State Board of Elections.

Weather could keep some voters home. The forecast is calling for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, perhaps severe.

With Deeds ahead in a final pre-primary poll, former frontrunner McAuliffe is attempting to slow momentum for the state senator from rural Bath County by suggesting his record on firearms is antithetical to Democrats.

During a rally outside a Richmond coffee shop that drew about 80 supporters, McAuliffe, a former Democratic National Committee chairman who lives in McLean, joked that taverns can be violent places without guns: “Trust me, I’m Irish; I understand.“

Meanwhile, a survivor of the Virginia Tech mass-shooting and a relative of a student killed in the 2007 tragedy circulated an e-mail urging Democrats to oppose Deeds because he resists gun control.

“Keeping the people we love safe is the single most important issue to us, and that’s why Senator Deeds won’t be getting our vote on Tuesday,“ wrote Omar Samaha and Colin Goddard. “We urge other Virginians to vote on Tuesday for the other Democrats.“

Deeds, backed by the National Rifle Association for attorney general over McDonnell in 2005, this year pushed for compromise to close a loophole allowing some purchases at firearms shows without compulsory background checks.

Moran, a former delegate from Alexandria who has pelted Deeds for fighting the one-handgun-a-month law enacted in 1993 under Democratic Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, wrapped up in his hometown with a rally near City Hall that organizers said attracted about 300 people.

In Richmond on Sunday night, Deeds called McAuliffe’s attacks a sign of desperation. Deeds said he is a “middle-of-the-road guy” whose stances will appeal to a broad swath of the electorate.

“I’m the only person that’s ever had to reach out and get Republican votes and independent votes, and in Virginia you have to do that,“ Deeds said.

In a continuing play for black votes, Deeds picked up a late endorsement from another of the Richmond area’s leading black politicians, state Sen. A. Donald McEachin, D-Henrico.